Last week was a bad week for the NFL betting public. That often means a good week for NFL underdogs.
According to our Covers Consensus data, teams drawing 60% or more of picks in their respective matchups went 0-7 against the spread.
Most of those popular picks were set as point-spread favorites by the NFL odds, which means pups popped off in Week 7. The official tally was an 8-5 ATS finish for underdogs.
Before Week 7, the “public” was beating up the bookies as teams drawing 60% or more of picks were covering at a 60% clip. And with public players gravitating toward stronger sides — most often favorites — it left underdogs to go just 40-47-4 ATS in the first six weeks of the season (46%).
I’ve been doing this sports betting thing for a while now, and if I’ve learned anything when it comes to season-long trends, it’s that things even out by year’s end.
Was last week’s public flogging the first sign of sportsbooks fighting their way back after a sluggish start to 2023? Possibly.
I will say, the previous three NFL seasons saw those “60%-plus public picks” finish a combined 44% against the spread. Underdogs have barked at a 54% ATS success rate from 2020 to 2022.
As for my NFL picks and predictions for this column, I’m ahead of the curve with a 12-9 ATS record as I break down NFL Week 8 odds. Here’s to the pending dog days. Down with the public.
Last week: 2-1 ATSSeason: 12-9 ATS
